As part of the fourth John McCloy Lecture at the Forschungskolleg Humanwissenschaften – Institute for Advanced Studies, Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev spoke about the impact demographic fears have on the global retreat from democracy.
Following the collapse of the socialist states in Eastern Europe and the end of the Cold War, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama declared the “end of history”, predicting that liberal democracy in its Western form would triumph globally and replace all other forms of government. Today we know that this prediction was incorrect. Authoritarian rulers hold power in many countries, and democratic societies are facing internal disintegration. History is far from over – the future remains open.
This observation formed the starting point for the fourth John McCloy Lecture, delivered in April by Ivan Krastev – political scientist, policy advisor, Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, and Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia. The title of his lecture was: “The Return of the Future and the Last Man: Politics of Demographic Imagination.”
Krastev began by emphasizing that the year 1989 – celebrated by Fukuyama as the dawn of liberal democracy’s triumph – held very different meanings for others: it was also the year the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, which radical Islam viewed as a major victory over a superpower; the Tiananmen Square protests were violently crushed in Beijing; and Serbian President Slobodan Milošević delivered his nationalist “Field of Blackbirds” speech.
Krastev explored the rise of authoritarian and nationalist movements from an unusual perspective. His focus: demographic forecasts that trigger fear. The majority of the world’s population now live in countries with sub-replacement fertility rates, he said, pointing out that South Korea’s population is projected to decline by 50% over the next 20 years, while in the United States, there is widespread anxiety that the white population may eventually become a minority and face oppression. Russia, too, fears a sharp population decline due to falling birth rates. It is this so-called “demographic imagination,” Krastev argued, that fosters anti-democratic and anti-liberal attitudes. People fear being in the minority in future democratic elections, feel as though they belong to a “dying breed”, and see themselves as the “last representatives” of their nation. Liberal values and culture – including feminism – are often blamed for this perceived decline.
A lively audience discussion followed, raising critical questions such as whether Krastev sees demographic imagination as the sole cause of increasing authoritarianism and what possible solutions he envisions. Krastev responded that while the future is open, it is important to recognize and confront the elephant in the room.
The John McCloy Lectures are organized by the John McCloy Transatlantic Forum at Goethe University’s Forschungskolleg Humanwissenschaften – an Institute for Advanced Studies in the Humanities in Bad Homburg. The lecture series invites distinguished figures from academia and society to present and debate their perspectives on current developments in transatlantic democracy in a public evening lecture.
Watch the lecture on YouTube
